What follows is all a guess – conjecture.
Bitcoin was due for its Segwit2x hard fork around November 14th. The price heading into the end of last week was all time highs around $7,500 USD. The proposed fork caused some controversy and there was bickering for months. On one side was existing Bitcoin supporters, and a separate small but influential group formed by the “New York Agreement“(NYA). The NYA gang included some of the biggest names, most pioneers in Bitcoin who carry much influence.
They also most likely have stacks of Bitcoin (just google their names) held for years. That most likely means they hold Bitcoin Cash coins from the fork several months ago. Suddenly these 6 write a note, calling off the fork.
“Our goal has always been a smooth upgrade for Bitcoin,” a group of leaders in bitcoin development told members of the SegWit2x mailing list Wednesday. “Unfortunately, it is clear that we have not built sufficient consensus for a clean blocksize upgrade at this time. Continuing on the current path could divide the community and be a setback to Bitcoin’s growth. This was never the goal of Segwit2x.”
First there is a quick spike of a few hundred dollars. This would seem to make sense as now there is more certainty for Bitcoin. Suddenly, however the price tanks.
Bitcoin Cash immediately starts to take off.
Here is a theory – I have no proof of this. You have a core group of Bitcoin “elite” with giant pockets of both Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash. To “protect Bitcoin” they call of the segwit2x fork and immediately start dumping Bitcoin and buying Bitcoin Cash. They already own Bitcoin Cash from the fork in August 2017, and they are selling Bitcoin at all time highs. Tweets and blog posts suddenly start shooting out everywhere announcing the “death of Bitcoin” and volumes spike through the roof.
Sounds nuts, right. Well guys did this is stocks in the 1920’s (read here). Basically a bunch of guys would get together and start pumping up a stock, pushing out fake information. That got greedy speculators on board ad caused them to run the price up. The guys on the inside would then dump.
Who knows if this is what happened. Its all very strange, but I suspect well find out in the coming weeks.